The real cost
Facts checked October 22, 2026
Buyers budget for one ticket. The rates describe a series. The honest budgeting question is: how much must I set aside to have a 90% chance of reaching the funded stage at least once?
Each attempt at a 14% funded rate fails with probability 86%. Sixteen attempts fail all sixteen times with probability 0.86¹⁶ ≈ 9% — so 16 attempts is the 90% budget at base rates. On a €540 ticket that is €8,640; on the €89 smallest size of the same program, €1,424 — identical rules tested, a sixth of the exposure. At Topstep's published 16.8%, the 90% budget is 13 Combine runs; at Earn2Trade's published 8.89%, it is 25.
"I am not spending $249. I am starting a series whose 90% budget is $X." If X is money whose loss would change your life, the verdict is already written — no checker required.
Repeat purchase is the business model: about 2.6 challenges per buyer per year, with affiliates paid on every repeat. A buyer who budgets the series buys fewer, smaller tickets. A buyer who budgets one ticket buys the series anyway — one surprise at a time.
The verdict gives you the expected cost and the rule that applies to you. The Challenge Odds Kit gives you, program by program, the before-you-buy checklist, the style-versus-rules worksheets, the expected-cost workbook, and the payout-protection playbook: how to never hand a firm the excuse to refuse your payout.
Included in the $39 Challenge Odds Kit
Sources: the firms' own published pages (price grids and program terms), the FPFX Technology dataset of 300,000+ accounts reported by Finance Magnates (2024), pass and payout figures published by the firms themselves, and regulator publications (CFTC, FSMA, Consob, CNMV). Recorded and checked October 22, 2026. Prices on this site are the list prices recorded on that date, promotions excluded; if a price or a rule has moved since, the firm's own page wins — and write to help@doogex.com so we can correct ours.